非等间距GM(1,1)模型的总体最小二乘算法及其病态问题     

陶武勇  花向红  鲁铁定  陈西江  张伟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(1):45-50

在非等间距GM(1,1)模型中，系数矩阵中有无误差的常数项和有误差的随机项，并且系数矩阵与观测向量误差同源，即系数矩阵与观测向量中有相同的元素存在，这些相同元素应该有相同的改正数，为此本文推导了一种适合非等间距GM(1,1)模型求解的总体最小二乘算法。同时，考虑到非等间距GM(1,1)模型中存在病态问题时影响总体最小二乘计算结果的稳定性，提出对系数矩阵常数列乘以某一常数的方法，以改善病态问题。  相似文献   

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Chuan‐An Xia  Juxiu Tong  Bill X. Hu  Xiujie Wu  Alberto Guadagnini 《水文研究》2018,32(20):3140-3157

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.  相似文献   

Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood          下载免费PDF全文

Shanghong Zhang  Zhu Jing  Wenda Li  Yujun Yi  Yong Zhao 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1625-1634

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.  相似文献   

利用超快速精密星历约束的北斗卫星实时精密定轨     

范磊  施闯  李敏 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(9):937-942

以广播星历为起算轨道的北斗卫星实时滤波精密定轨往往需要较长收敛时间，针对此，提出利用超快速精密星历约束的实时精密定轨方法。通过MGEX跟踪网全球分布的51个测站连续7 d的实测数据，利用平方根信息滤波对北斗卫星实时精密轨道进行确定，并以3 d解事后轨道作为参考，评估北斗卫星实时滤波轨道精度。结果表明，利用广播星历作起算轨道时，北斗实时滤波轨道平均需要经过15 h收敛才能达到稳定，而新方法在这段时间内轨道变化较为平稳，未出现明显的收敛现象，并且7 d时间内GEO卫星在切向、法向和径向上RMS分别优于2.5 m、20 cm和30 cm，IGSO和MEO卫星在3个方向上分别优于30 cm、15 cm和10 cm。
  相似文献   

基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究     

但文羽  肖映辉  胡周灵  詹庆明 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(10):1412-1421

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。  相似文献   

基于GIS的石家庄市雾霾分析     

苏亚聪  史娟  徐爽 《北京测绘》2020,(2):233-237

为了得出雾霾气象成因机制、影响因素和时空分布特征,以石家庄市区与郊县为研究区域,将2013年9月至2016年12月石家庄市各市区、郊县的PM2.5历史监测数据中的有效数据进行了数据分析处理得到雾霾浓度数据,还有温度、降水、风速、地形和人口密度等数据,运用GIS分析的方法,模拟绘制石家庄雾霾的时空分布图、雾霾与各影响因子的专题对比图,得到雾霾形成机制的因子、雾霾的时空分布规律、雾霾季节变化特征、雾霾与地形间的关系等;运用数据分析软件OriginPro8.SR3分析雾霾浓度与风速数据、降雨数据、温度数据间的相关性。  相似文献   

青海湖流域植被盖度时空变化研究     

高黎明  张乐乐 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(9):1318-1329

高寒区植被变化一直是气候和生态学领域关注的热点问题。本研究基于MODIS NDVI数据计算的植被覆盖度数据和高分辨率气象数据,分析了青海湖流域2001-2017年植被覆盖度分布格局及动态变化,探讨了其对气候变化、人类活动和冻土退化的响应。结果表明：① 近十几年青海湖流域植被覆盖度整体表现为增加趋势,不同植被类型增幅存在差异性,草地增幅最大,达到6.1%/10a,其它植被类型增幅在2%~3%/10a之间;② 流域局部地区仍存在植被退化现象,研究期植被退化面积表现为先增加后减小的变化趋势。2006-2011年重度退化区集中在青海湖东岸,2011-2017年重度退化区集中在流域的西北部,这些区域是青海湖流域荒漠分布区,植被覆盖度较低,是今后生态恢复需重点关注的区域;③ 气候变化是流域植被覆盖度变化的主导因素,气候变化对青海湖流域主要植被类型覆盖度变化的贡献率为84.21%,对草原、草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化的贡献率分别为81.84%、87.47%和75.96%;④ 人类活动对流域主要植被类型覆盖度变化的贡献率为15.79%,对草原、草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化的贡献率分别为18.16%、12.53%和24.04%,环青海湖地区人类活动对植被恢复有促进效应,在青海湖流域北部部分地区人类活动的破坏力度仍大于建设力度;⑤ 冻土退化对青海湖流域草甸和灌丛植被覆盖度变化影响很小,主要影响草原植被覆盖度变化,冻土退化造成草原植被覆盖度增长速率减小了1.2%/10a。  相似文献   

Wave tank and bench-top control testing of a wave energy converter     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

An increasing number of experiments are being conducted to study the design and performance of wave energy converters. Often in these tests, a real-time realization of prospective control algorithms is applied in order to assess and optimize energy absorption as well as other factors. This paper details the design and execution of an experiment for evaluating the capability of a model-scale WEC to execute basic control algorithms. Model-scale hardware, system, and experimental design are considered, with a focus on providing an experimental setup capable of meeting the dynamic requirements of a control system. To more efficiently execute such tests, a dry bench testing method is proposed and utilized to allow for controller tuning and to give an initial assessment of controller performance; this is followed by wave tank testing. The trends from the dry bench test and wave tank test results show good agreement with theory and confirm the ability of a relatively simple feedback controller to substantially improve energy absorption. Additionally, the dry bench testing approach is shown to be an effective and efficient means of designing and testing both controllers and actuator systems for wave energy converters.  相似文献   

贵州夜郎湖表层水体地球化学昼夜变化及其影响因素     

王家录  任娟  王勇  李维杰  娄昭  陈佳 《热带地理》2020,40(2):335-345

为探究岩溶水库水文地球化学行为过程,对贵州普定夜郎湖表层水体进行了为期3 d的高分辨率昼夜监测。结果表明：1）多变的天气和水文条件叠加导致水体离子指标昼夜变化不显著,规律性较差。而水温、DO、pH值、SpC、SIc、pCO₂等常规理化指标受水温变化和生物作用表现出明显的昼夜波动。2）利用亨利常数和主成分分析,得到温度变化、生物作用、人类活动、水库的蓄水与放水对夜郎湖水库水文地球化学特征变化的贡献率分别为21.66%、17.28%、14.08%和10.22%,说明作用于水库水文地球化学行为的因子具有多元性。3）δ ¹⁸O表现出与DO一致的波动趋势,即白天上升,晚上下降,反映在短时间尺度上,氢氧稳定同位素变化受控于生物过程（主要是呼吸作用过程）;而对比水库水体和大气降水的d-excess（d值）发现,水库水体的d值（8.21‰）显著偏低于当地大气降水的d值（9.64‰）,说明在长时间尺度上,主要受蒸发效应引起的不平衡分馏影响。  相似文献   

Overview of In - Situ Biodegradation and Enhancement     

DONG Jun  Anthony Adzomani  Zhao Yongsheng 《世界地质(英文版)》2002,5(1)

Microbial degradation technologies have been developed to restore ground water quality in aquifers polluted by organic contaminants effectively in recent years. However, in course of the degradation, the formation of biofilms in ground water remediation technology can be detrimental to the effectiveness of a ground water remediation project. Several alternatives are available to a remedial design engineer, such as Permeable Reactive Barriers (PRBs) and in -situ bioremediation, Hydrogen Releasing Compounds (HRCs) barrier, Oxygen Releasing Compounds (ORCs) barrier etc. which are efficient and cost- effective technologies. Excessive biomass formation renders a barrier ineffective in degrading the contaminants, Efforts are made to develop kinetics models which accurately determine bio - fouling and bio - filn formation and to control excessive biomass formation.  相似文献